Please note, this course is not offered in 2009. 

The cohort-component method of population projection is reviewed, including added detail such as labour force status. There are three approaches to determining the projection input in terms of future mortality, fertility and migration: these approaches can be characterised as expectation, extrapolation and explanation. Traditional methods use expectation or expert opinion, based on demographic and other considerations. Students will formulate a complete population projection of this type, using Excel. Recent methods use extrapolation often incorporating time series methods. Extrapolative methods are reviewed in detail. Specifically, the Lee-Carter method of mortality forecasting is studied, and students will formulate a projection using this method (in Excel). Forecasts based on explanation are also discussed.

For further information, see http://adsri.anu.edu.au/study/Courses/DEMO8080/index.php

DEMO8008 Principles of Population Analysis at Distinction level or higher. 

DEMO8007 Statistics for Social Scientists at Distinction level or higher.