Accurate forecasting of future events and their outcomes is a crucial input into a successful business or economic planning process. This course provides an introduction to the application of various forecasting techniques. The methods include trend curve extrapolation, smoothing, autoregressions, regression modelling, leading indicators. The course also looks at techniques for the evaluation of performance of forecasting methods and examines the role of forecasts in the decision making process. Students will learn how to use the various techniques in real world forecasting applications.

Objectives and plan: The main objective of this course is to prepare you for one of the important tasks that you may be asked to perform as an economist with quantitative skills/econometrician or a statistician. The course is developed in the context of real world forecasting applications. In one application, you are asked to forecast three key economic indicators for several countries for the next .ve years for a web based international investment consultants. In another, you are asked to forecast electricity load at every hour of the next day for an operations manager of a power company. In the .nal application, you are asked to forecast short-term visitor arrivals to Australia as a member of a team of economists who are doing research on the future of tourism industry in Australia.

Assessment: The assessment scheme is as follows

Assignments 20%

Mid-semester examination 15%

Final examination 65%

See Course Outline: http://teaching.fec.anu.edu.au/EMET3007/Outline2007.pdf

See Course Outline: http://teaching.fec.anu.edu.au/EMET3007/Outline2007.pdf

For further information please refer to http://ecocomm.anu.edu.au/courses/course.asp?code=EMET8012